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Thursday, October 29, 2020

Destroying Angel's Election Prediction

 Axiom 1:    Most people realize that pollsters put respondents' preferences into a database.

Axiom 2:    As a result, because they don't want retaliation from biased media, high-tech, bad guys in general, etc., a large number of Trump supporters actually lie to pollsters.

Axiom 3:    Conservatively, Destroying Angel predicts that at least 10% of Trump supporters will tell pollsters they support Joe Biden.

Net-net:    Take whatever poll you want and subtract 5% from Biden and add 5% to Trump.


Hence, even the most pessimistic Trump polls are, in reality, predictions for a resounding Trump victory on November 3, 2020.

I figured I'd post this in advance of the elections, just to have it in writing and out there. If pollsters want to pull their industry out of the crapper, they should take those names and phone numbers from their database of Biden supporters, select a truly random sample, and send people out to the respondents' homes for a personal interview. This should be the NEW BEST PRACTICES for future political polling.

Taman Shud.

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Implementation suggestions for THE MORGAN DOCTRINE are most welcome. What are the "Got'chas!"? What questions would some future Cyber Privateering Czar have to answer about this in a Senate confirmation hearing?