Friday, September 9, 2011

BYU/Texas "Twitter data exhaust" prediction

On August 29th I covered the Hedge Fund that uses Twitter to predict the market. I also hinted that some major new analytics tools are in the pipeline. Well sports fans, I have my hands on a pre-Alpha version of one such tool. And just for laughs, I wanted to spike proverbial ball BEFORE Saturday's BYU/Texas football game. "Twitter data exhaust," suggests BYU will win the game. Which would actually surprise the bejeebies out of me, even though I'm a BYU fan (all four of my children went to BYU). Everything I know about football would suggest that Texas will resoundingly spank BYU. But what do I know?

So I'll post this a day in advance of the game, beginning a record of successes and failures using "Twitter data exhaust" to forecast the future. Maybe after the game I'll try my hand at handicapping the terrorist threat level, or ferreting out money laundering activity. That's right. After the game. And as two notes of full disclosure:

  1. I did not look at any other sources of game prediction (Google, ESPN, etc.). This had to be a Twitter-only data feed; and
  2. I am doing some work for the company that created the Twitter-analytics product (full disclosure is always important as you consider the source of any information).

On August 5th I opined that Twitter is the new Cyberwar Dashboard. Let's see if I can use some pretty freaky analytics to see who is tweaking those dials. Heck, on August 2nd I reported that the DoD is spending up to $42 million on Twitter analytics. All I'm spending is a few entertaining minutes with some swell new toys. If they work well, maybe I can convince the creators of this tool to make it available to everyone, free of charge.

POSTSCRIPT:  I just checked the College Football News prediction, and they think Texas will win:
CFN Prediction: Texas 24 … BYU 13

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Implementation suggestions for THE MORGAN DOCTRINE are most welcome. What are the "Got'chas!"? What questions would some future Cyber Privateering Czar have to answer about this in a Senate confirmation hearing?